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Private and Confidential
GRI Equity Review - October 2005
Perspective
In October a couple of issues kept presenting themselves. Do I want
truth or justice? Can you be an atheist Christian?
It seems difficult to come to terms with these zen like dilemmas, and
others like them, that face humanity. But they are the fulcrum upon which
humanity is deciding its future. We prefer truth and justice, which usually
means that results take longer. And we see many atheists who behave in
a way that Jesus of Nazareth would respect. It is also painfully obvious
that many people succumb to the psychology of tyranny in which they express
a group value ("go to war") which is directly opposed to their
personal value ("do not kill"). It is unfortunate that the hegemon
USA has allowed religion (in contrast to spirituality) to enter government.
The country was established by people intent on equity, but recent events
have led to the breakdown of responsibility at the highest levels. Most
other countries are guilty of the same complacency, but nature and public
opinion will hopefully wake us up and help us be the change that we need
to be.
Bush has claimed he was told by God to invade
Iraq and attack Osama bin Laden's stronghold of Afghanistan.
This was part of a divine mission to bring peace to the Middle East, security
for Israel, and their own state for the Palestinians. The President made
the assertion during his first meeting with Palestinian leaders in June
2003, according to a new BBC series aired in October. In the programme,
Elusive Peace: Israel and the Arabs, the former Palestinian foreign minister
Nabil Shaath says that Mr Bush told him and Mahmoud Abbas, former Prime
Minister and now Palestinian President, that "I'm driven with a mission
from God. God would tell me, 'George, go and fight those terrorists in
Afghanistan.' And I did, and then God would tell me, 'George, go and end
the tyranny in Iraq,' and I did." And "now again, I feel God's words coming
to me: 'Go get the Palestinians their state and get the Israelis their
security, and get peace in the Middle East.' And by God, I'm gonna do
it." Mr Abbas remembers how the President told him he had a "moral and
religious obligation" to act. Striking also was Mr Bush's unrelenting
portrayal of radical Islam as a global menace, which only the forces of
freedom, led by the US, could repel. It was delivered at a moment when
the President's domestic approval ratings are at their lowest ebb, in
large part because of casualties in the war in Iraq.
Top
Geopolitics
Bush is beset on many fronts such as the disappointing
and failed Miers nomination, the White house leak investigation which
is probing Dick Cheney, Lewis Libby and Carl Rove, the deathtoll in Iraq
passing 2,000, and economic pressure. HIs approcal rating has sunk to
around 40%. So far the cracks in his administration are mainly with the
conservative intelligensia, but if sentiment spreads it would cripple
the administration.
From a global perspective, the behaviour of the Empire of America is
causing a shift in sentiment. As one commentator says:
-
the image of the US is no longer the statue of liberty, but the
prisoners of Abu Ghraib
-
a hegemon has to be perceived not just as benevolent, but competent,
and the adminisatration fails catastrophically on the competence test
Francis Fukuyama says that Bush has done enormous harm to the US, though
asserts that his "doctrine" will not be followed by any future administration,
whether Democrat or Republican. All one can hope is that the damage will
not be irreparable.
Germany is continuing its emergence as an enlightened
society and culture. Gerhard Schroder, who was seen as a breath
of fresh air when he took over from Kohl, is now stepping back as Angela
Merkel appears ready to take over a large coalition government.
The evolution of this proces has taken place in a measured and stable
way and is all good for Germany and Germans. The worst that will
happen is that the coalition will hold together but do little. The
opportunity is to introduce more variety and opportunities in Germany
for all.
A recent paper
by Philippe Aghion of Harvard and Peter Howitt of Brown has made two
exciting suggestions. They say that appropriate development strategies
are dependent on the stage of emergence of an economy,
which suggests that planners, policy makers and analysts should be more
sophistcated in determining strategy. They also say that growth
is not always good and that periods of rejuvenation and reorientation
are beneficial and should be incorporated and managed. An example might
be the development of a country's industrial profile in which old infrastructure
must be destroyed and replaced such as the replacement of Europe's textile
industry as manufacture is exported to lower wage environments and domestic
labour reorients to local specialist manufacture or services.
Top
Risk and Terror
The
earth quake in Pakistan has devastated
communities. The earthquake is thought to have been the strongest the
region has seen in a century. In some areas a whole generation of children
has been lost. The effects of Katrina pale in comparison. Children had
been the biggest casualties, many of whom were killed when schools collapsed.
And many survivors will be orphaned. Initial estimates of the death toll
were 20,000 - the actual number of dead is closer to 60,000. Access has
been difficult, winter is setting in and conditions are attrocious. Despite
aid from the international comunity, more is needed.
Unicef www.unicef.org Kashmir
International Relief Fund www.kirf.org
Red Cross/ Red Crescent www.ifrc.org
The other risk that has shouted at us through the media is avian influenza.
Bird flu fear is not appropritae, but pragmatism is.
The death rates from H5N1 are not indicative of a pandemic and there is
no reason to guess that this year will be worse than another. In
the short term normal healthy living is the best precaution - eat
properly, don't get stressed. However, the dynamics of this virus
are a symptom of the more fundamental problem of increasing volatility
of nature. The media reports lead us to believe that the virus is
being communicated from one creature to another. This may be the
case and the reason for appropriate hygiene (too many detergents weaken
our imune system so do not overdo it), but it obscures the fact that the
virus is emergent in the right conditions. Like BSE, if
the food web or habitat of the mammal are too toxic a mutant virus emerges.
The solution is therefore to improve the living conditions of the animals.
Unfortunately, neither global trade agreements nor local governments or
consumers have yet begun to reverse the trend of industrialisation of
food cultivation.
Another natural disaster is ongoing but virtually ignored - the food
crisis in southern Africa caused by disrupted infrastructure,
including water, bureaucracy, poor land management and other easily avoidable
problems.
Refco, a leading commodities and futures broker, has
been in crisis since it revealed it was owed $ 430 million by an unregulated
subsidiary. Please read more in the investment section.
The Human
Security Report
is the most comprehensive annual survey of trends in warfare,
genocide, and human rights abuses. The Report, which was produced
by the Human Security Centre at the University of British Columbia, supported
by five governments and published by Oxford University Press, shows how,
after nearly five decades of inexorable increase, the number of genocides
and violent conflicts dropped rapidly in the wake of the Cold War. It
also reveals that wars are not only far less frequent today, but are also
far less deadly. It explodes a number of widely believed myths about contemporary
political violence. The latter include claims that terrorism is currently
the gravest threat to international security, that 90% of those killed
in today's wars are civilians and that women are disproportionately victimized
by armed conflict. The number of armed conflicts has declined by more
than 40% since 1992. The deadliest conflicts (those with 1000 or more
battle-deaths) dropped even more dramatically-by 80%.
On the subject of terror, Scientific American
Mind published analysis
of the psychology of tyranny, which we recommend.
A telling finding is that group behaviour requires comliance of all in
the group, and while individual values may be compromised, individuals
will do that in order to adhere to the group behaviour. The description
of "The BBC Experiment" illustrates shifts in group dynamics
and changes in authoritarianism which result in otherwise good people
doing unethical things.
The publication of Transparency
International's annual ranking in October is reason to reiterate the
problem of corruption in Russia, which fell even further
to rank among Sierra Leone and Albania. Ironically people in Russia see
the worst corruption in the police force, where they
may be faced with traffic violation bribes daily, but the least in banking
and law, where corruption's effect in far greater and the aggregate numbers
influence major cash flows. The effect of tightening central control is
to raise corruption and risk. Not only can corruption cut into daily living
costs, but it can wreak havoc with investment and business development,
and often results in death. Chechnya is the most visible illustration
of a rotten core, but it is seen throughout society - business, academia,
internet, law, politics. There appears to be little energy to clean the
situation up, either from within Russia or among the foreigners that invest,
do business or engage politically. Caveat emptor.
Interestingly, Carlyle, the politically connected US hedge, closed its
Russia office because of, according to founder Rubenstein, unmanageable
corruption issues and Putin is not as receptive to foreign private equity
as Carlyle had expected.
US senators have voted overwhelmingly (90-9) to outlaw cruel or
degrading treatment of detainees held in US custody abroad.
Prisoner abuse scandals at Abu Ghraib jail in Iraq and concern over the
treatment of detainees at Guantanamo Bay have dogged the US since 2001.
The motion was opposed by the White House, which views it as unnecessary.
Bush administration officials say the move would be restrictive, and limit
its fight against terrorism. Republican Senator John McCain tabled
the motion as an amendment to a Pentagon funding bill. Correspondents
say the White House could veto the entire $440bn (£248bn) bill to defeat
the motion.
Top
Investment, Finance & V. C.
The investment outlook is not buoyant, although there are no major tremors
that pressage a debacle. The general economic environment is under pressure
from rising interest costs and moderating demand, illustrated by falling
consumer confidence (from 105 in July to below 90 now). With price
benchmarks well valued there is not room either in multiple or in fundamental
performance that will boost the market. We are considering strategies
for investment in a modest 2006 market.
Ben Bernanke, currently head of Bush's
Council of Economic Advisers and a former Fed governor, has been nominated
to succeed Alan Greenspan as US Federal Reserve chairman.
Bernanke has been well received as a competent, experienced Fed governor
whose approach and policies are close enough to Greenspan's to expect
a smooth transition. Mr Bernanke is an advocate of "inflation targeting"
- an approach widely adopted in Europe - under which central banks set
a target for inflation and stick to it. Greenspan believes central banks
should keep markets guessing on how tough they would be on inflation.
Bernanke will however have a tough job as the economy is stretched, demand
is moderating. Also increasingly the gloabl economy moderates the impact
of Fed actions and complicates analysis. Mr Greenspan will end his 18-year
tenure January 31 2006.
Intellectual property rights are a key part of many
businesses today. But they are becoming couterproductive to innovation
and testing the bounds of ethics, as well as having their economics questioned.
The growth of open technology in high tech spheres like computing and
bioscience are the brightest illustration that the economics of intellectual
property rights are questionable. The greatest danger is that nature will
be compromised by hasty use of "patented" seed because moral
hazard presses a company like Monsanto to spread use of their genetically
engineered seeds despite evidence that they destroy productive systems
(eg horseweed in California, red millet in India). Fortunately a call
has been made by a group of leading scientists, legal scholars, artists
and experts from around the world, who have issued the Adelphi
Charter in a bid to bring intellectual property rights under
control. A principal feature of the charter is a public interest test.
It is a welcome step in the right direction. The unfolding story has implications
for business heavily invested in technology and for portfolio planning.
The
Economist published a survey of patents and technology on 22 October
which provides an up-to-date precis of issues.
The US budget deficit shrank to $319
billion last year as better economic conditions boosted tax revenues.
Despite falling from 2004's record $412 billion figure, the federal deficit
for the fiscal year ending last month was still the third highest on record.
The 2005 fiscal year deficit amounted to 2.6% of GDP, below the 3.6% recorded
in 2004 and the post World War Two high of 6% in 1983. This year's deficit
is likely to be swelled by $ 30 billion of spending on post-Hurricane
Katrina reconstruction.
A study by the Ifo Rresearch Institute found that Germany's
business climate index hit a five-year high of 98.7 in October, up from
96 a month earlier, further suggesting the recovery in
Europe's largest economy may be strengthening.
China Construction Bank, known by locals as "China Corruption
Bank" in honour of its jailed former Chairman Wang Xuebing (who's offences
were actually committed at Bank of China), had its $ 8 billion IPO at
the end of October indicating the bubbly nature of the quest for Chinese
bank stocks. The market cap is around $ 66 billion making it more valuable
than American Express, Barclays, or Deutsche Bank! Technically insolvent
a few years ago, bad loans may have been taken out but, even if so, there
is little evidence that practices have changed. We continue to urge caution
in the headlong rush to buy Chinese banks, especially since foreigners
have been promised full market access from 2007 under China's WTO commitments.
The next mega-sale is Bank of China expected to have a foreign listing
in early 2006. 
Another bank deal is the proposed purchase by Deutsche Bank AG and Sal.
Oppenheim jr. & Cie. of a combined 14% stake in China’s Hua Xia Bank
for € 272 million. This is the first major purchase of a stake in a Chinese
bank by a German financial institution and further extends foreign participation
in China’s financial system beyond the country’s top tier banks. The two
German lenders will buy a total of 587.2 million shares from 18 Hua Xia
shareholders; the deal will give Deutsche Bank a 9.9% stake in Hua Xia,
while Sal. Oppenheim, Europe’s largest independent private bank, will
have 4.1%. Fitch Ratings estimates that Deutsche Bank and Sal. Oppenheim
paid 2.1 times book value for Hua Xia, higher than the 1.2 times book
value that foreign investors have paid for minority stakes in Bank of
China and CCB.
So far this year, foreign banks have spent $ 10.3 billion to acquire
shares in Chinese banks, according to Dealogic. The major deals have swirled
around China’s big four banks: Industrial & Commercial Bank of China,
Bank of China, China Construction Bank and Agricultural Bank of China.
As these charts from the Economist show, a fundamental view of the banking
system is not reassuring.
While business is good, consumer loans have increased by about 6x in 6
years, the bank system foundation appears shaky. If this is a bubble pumped
up by foreign banks and investors, the Chinese won't mind. Foreign money
will pay for the learning curve of the Chinese banking system when conditions
deteriorate. Caveat emptor.
The
health sector may be more interesting to pursue. This chart shows how
spending on private health care is skyrocketing.
A host of reports emerged that suggested that India
is becoming a more attractive investment destination
than China.
In China, a widening income gap between town and country is worrying
officials and will have implications for market analysis and development.
But in India, the gap is narrowing and this is a virtuous circle which
stimulates opportunities. A WBCSD
reports that in 1990, for every $100 earned by an Indian villager,
an urbanite made $82 more. Today, the difference has dropped to $56. Though
in India, 390 million people still live on $1 a day or less. What is changing
is the nature of the rich-poor divide. That divide was once synonymous
with the urban-rural split. The only way to get rich was to live in town,
and to reside in the country was to be bound to interminable poverty.
But increasingly, the rural economy is a microcosm of the national economy,
with its own rich and poor. The rural rich are 1,000 times as likely as
the rural poor to own a motorcycle, 100 times as likely to own a color
television and 25 times as likely to own a pressure cooker, according
to a survey of 96,000 rural households by the research council. That distribution
of wealth may or may not be equitable. But in creating the possibility
of making it in rural India itself, the new rural prosperity is transforming
rural India's image from economic nonentity to emerging market within
the emerging market. India's 700 million villagers now account for the
majority of consumer spending in the country, more than $100 billion a
year. Millions step into consumerism each year, graduating from the economics
of necessity to the economics of gratification, buying themselves motorcycles,
televisions, transistor radios and pressure cookers. Diverse forces are
fueling the trend. The government has invested billions of dollars in
development, including road building and rural electrification, and has
forced banks to lend to farmers. Good monsoons have helped farmers' profits.
Widening educational access has helped farmers' children to get city jobs
and send money home. With the private sector booming, industry and services
have overtaken farming to account for 54 percent of rural income.
Also in India, Sanjiv
Gupta, former Coca-Cola India CEO, and Kishore Biyani, founder of Indian
retailer Pantaloon, reportedly are forming a private equity firm
focused on the retail space suggesting that they see
booming opportunities in this space. This contrasts with a deteriorating
retail environment in Europe and the US.
Microfinance is an emerging niche which we believe exhibits
an attractive risk/return profile. A well attended gathering, including
Stanley Fischer and Kofi Annan, was sponsored by Cassin in October. Papers
are available online here.
Responsible Investing
Enron Risk hit the headlines in October. Another telling tale of woe
is the story of Refco, a New York-based independent futures
brokerage, which typically posts over $1 billion in annual revenue and
around $20 billion in managed assets, imploded in October. Refco chairman
and CEO Phillip Bennett admitted to having hidden $430 million in debt
owed to the company. The scam involved a holding company controlled by
Bennett, and apparently had been going on since he took the reigns in
1998. Bennett has been arrested and charged with securities fraud. It
is a sorry story because bad apples at the top of the barrel have caused
distress for everyone in the group, as well as other stakeholders. (More
from a VC perspective below.)
Another hedge fund debacle also hit the news in October
with the SEC probe of Wood River Capital Mabagement. Caveat emptor.
Whole Foods has said it will open its first lifestyle
store in late October on Santa Monica Boulevard, West Hollywood. The new
store is likely to be smaller than its food stores (typically around 50,000
sq ft) and will offer products such as organic blue jeans, recycled handbags
and environment-friendly paints and household products. The clothing offer
is expected to include the Edun line by U2’s Bono. A selection of world
music, sustainable living books and magazines will also be available.
Neil Currie, a retail analyst with investment bank USB commented: "The
opening of this store is interesting. It is showing that Whole Foods is
thinking of ways it can build strong brand equity. It's a sensible approach
and a low-risk way of the company testing out a new concept to move into
new product categories.”
Wal-Mart CEO Lee Scott surprised company observers
by embracing
sustainability in a speech
announcing ambitious initiatives on "all the issues that we've been
dealing with historically from a defensive posture." The very fact Wal-Mart
is addressing the issues it has so long avoided or short-shrifted -
such as greenhouse gas emissions, waste reduction, product sourcing,
healthcare, wages, and diversity - sends a loud signal to the market
from one of the world's largest companies. Observers in the socially
responsible investing (SRI) community welcome the potential changes
while maintaining skepticism. "Wal-Mart's environmental goals -
100 percent renewable energy, zero waste, and sustainable products -
are extremely ambitious but also very promising; merely aspiring toward
the first two will have enormous ripple effects throughout their supply
chain and reduce the strains that the company places on the public sector,"
said Shelley Alpern, director of social research and advocacy at Trillium
Asset Management. "Obviously, what kinds of products constitute
the third goal will be open to great debate, but the package-reduction
goals will go a long way toward greening many product lines." Wal-Mart,
the largest U.S. retailer, is joining the largest manufacturer, General
Electric, in setting specific environmental goals while advertising
those goals to shareholders, customers and the public as strategic business
decisions. Goals include to invest $500 million in technologies that
would reduce greenhouse gases from stores and distribution centers by
20 percent over the next seven years, increase the fuel efficiency of
the truck fleet by 25 percent over the next three years and double it
within a decade and design a new store that was at least 25 percent
more energy-efficient within four years.
Socially responsible investing is showing signs of being memetic -
in other words, spreading like a cultural virus. Specifically, traditional
"mainstream" investors are starting to integrate social and
environmental considerations into fundamental analysis of companies.
Goldman
Sachs for example, self-described as "one of the oldest and largest
investment banking firms", recently issued a report to its clients entitled
Global Energy: Sustainable Investing in the Energy Sector. GS inaugurated
its own assessment of issues typically associated with SRI with its
February 2004 launch of the Goldman Sachs Energy Environment and Social
Index, assessing 30 social and environmental criteria in the global
energy sector. It subsequently expanded coverage with its Environment,
Social and Governance Index, increasing the number of criteria to 42
while adding a corporate governance category. "We believe that this
template will be applicable across most industries because it captures
the full spectrum of a company's interaction with the four key pillars:
the economy; the industry in which it operates; society, from employees
to partners, consumers, and counterparties; and the environment, in
terms of resources consumed, emitted, and produced," states the report.
"We believe excellence is a habit and that companies with superior environmental
and social management are likely to be more successful in operating
projects in the new world." The 164-page report demonstrates how GS
applies its sustainable investing strategies to the global energy sector.
The report finds GSEES leaders financially outperforming their
peers by 12 percent since the index launch. It also finds strong
financial performance by energy companies exposed to so-called "new
legacy assets"--the largest oil and gas fields as defined by reserves
that will drive the future of the industry over the next 20 years. Significantly,
the report finds a strong correlation between strong ESG performance,
exposure to new legacy assets (GS identified the top 50 such projects
in June 2003 and the top 100 in January 2005), and financial performance.
What distinguishes GS's methodology in this report from typical SRI
approaches is the additional consideration of exposure to new
legacy assets, while the ESG Index covers similar if not identical
territory to most SRI research. The ESG Index ranks companies (based
on information from their own disclosures) in five categories: environment,
environmental and social management, social, corporate governance, and
investment for the future. Interestingly, new legacy assets are not
completely divorced from but rather intersect with ESG considerations.
For example, the investment for the future category assesses community
investment.
Venture Capital
Venture capital fund-raising slipped in Q3
2005. 714 companies raised $ 5.26 billion in the third quarter of 2005,
according to the MoneyTree Survey by PricewaterhouseCoopers, Thomson
Venture Economics and the National Venture Capital Association. Venture
investment decreased from Q2 2005 of $ 6.07 billion, but surpassed Q1
2005 of $ 5.0 billion and Q3 2004 of $4.66 billion. For the first nine
months of 2005, investing totaled $16.3 billion compared to $15.9 billion
for the first nine months of 2004. Total venture capital investing in
calendar 2005 could meet or exceed 2002's $21.7 billion which is the
highest level in the prior three years. Over the past three years, investing
has ranged from $4-$6 billion per quarter.
On the fund capital raising side,
45 U.S.-based VC firms closed on approximately $5.39 billion in fund
capital during Q3 2005, which is the lowest tally since 54 such firms
raised around $4.8 billion in Q3 2004. Second quarter 2005 numbers had
been $6.49 billion for 53 firms, while year-to-date VC fund-raising
stands at $17.37 billion for 130 funds. This last figure actually tops
the entire 2004 total, which may discount a bit of prudence and discipline,
given that this may be the richest VC fund-raising year since 2001.
The Refco debacle has hit major private equity firm
Thomas H. Lee Partners. In August 2004, TH Lee Partners
led a $2.25 billion leveraged buyout of Refco. The deal included just
over $500 million from TH Lee at around $8 per share. The IPO priced
at $22 per share in August 2005 (just above its $19-$21 offering range),
for a take of $583 million. TH Lee recouped around $170 million by selling
shares in the IPO, but remained Refco’s second-largest shareholder (behind
company management). Thomas H. Lee Partners is
losing around $1 billion in just three days. It may affect their current
fund raising as their due diligence was obviously weak in this case
(there may even be litigation), though their performance in general
is fine.
China is expected to relax capital-control
rules implemented earlier this year, in a move that could make it easier
for venture capitalists to invest in Chinese companies. The rule adjustment
is “to help domestic companies to make full use of the international
capital market, support the growth of the domestic high-technology industry
and venture-capital industry,” according to a draft of the new regulations.
The expected policy change comes amid a renewed push by Chinese leaders
to develop a domestic high-tech industry and amid a flood of new interest
by venture-capital firms in investing in Chinese technology and other
companies.
Investors in China are putting money into first-time
firms, first-time teams, and, in several cases, first-time VCs. Not
only are these VC firms abandoning the 30-minute rule (“We don't invest
in a company if we can't drive there in 30 minutes”), they're moving
into the risky territory of emerging managers. That should make the
next several years quite interesting.
India is overtaking China as the new hot spot for
private equity investing. China is still expected to continue to absorb
the lion’s share of Asian PE, but the benefits of India - including
a robust stock market, an English legal system, English as the language
of business and entrepreneurs with a lot of U.S. connections - are shifting
at least some of the attention away from China.
A Financial Times story about IP theft in China
in the semiconductor sector is an important reminder that the
risk of illegal copying really has not changed since General Motors,
Volkswagen, Cisco and others found parts they had designed in competing
products from their Chinese sub-contractors. The fact that this story
focuses on semiconductors should serve as a cautionary tale to VCs
rushing to China.
At the recent LBO Symposium in Boston, Carlyle founder David Rubenstein made
the striking assertion that private equity capital has become
the United States’
greatest export. Not airplanes or soybeans, but money. He acknowledged
during Q&A that certain U.S.-based private equity funds get capital
from overseas, but insisted that the trade-winds are far stronger from
U.S.
institutions to European and Asian private equity funds. As he correctly
pointed out, how many major European or Asian LBOs take place without
at least one U.S.
sponsor? How many European or Asian private equity firms are truly global,
as compared to the number of global firms in the original 50? He expects
overall private equity returns to decrease in the coming years, but
expects a similar decline in public market fortunes. As such, the differential
will remain the same, thus keeping private equity as an attractive asset
class. He also reckons that U.S.-focused private equity funds have better
median returns than do top-quartile firms focused on emerging markets
(read: Asia), but he expects that to change dramatically.
As a specialist in family business we were especially taken by the
following editorial by Private Equity Week ...
FAMILY MATTERS by Adam Reinebach
Say the phrase ‘family-owned business' to a private equity professional,
and you're likely to get a grimace, sigh or maybe even a dismissive
guffaw. While I don't know of any firm that expressly ignores
family businesses, many private equity investors have historically
preferred going after other opportunities. That's in large part
because buying, and then managing, a family-run business is often
more painful than spending the weekend with your in-laws. The
financials can be almost impossible to find, and as the deal gets
closer to completion you may discover that your purchase includes
an added bonus: The founder's idiot brother who's running distribution
has a ‘no-fire' clause in his contract (and a no-work attitude).
Even firms who specialize in buying family-run companies have
their share of war stories to tell. But concerns and aggravation
aside, a growing number of private equity firms are waking up
to the fact that family-owned businesses are, and will continue
to be, a major source of deal flow for the middle market. With
so many entrepreneurs reaching their mid-to-late 60s, the collective
transfer of ownership over the next several years will be enormous.
And since a large number of today's would-be inheritors have no
desire to keep running their family business, many of those companies
will end up being sold to outsiders. And with competition what
it is, buyout firms can't really afford to ignore these opportunities.
For private equity firms, their success or failure with family
businesses hinges on patience and flexibility. Family business
owners often request ridiculously complex agreements, and it's
not uncommon for them to get cold feet and cancel a transaction
altogether—only to put themselves up for sale again a few months
later. Access to financials is often problematic, and the due
diligence process might be four times as long as it is with a
‘standard' transaction. Meanwhile, for their part, sellers need
to understand how to be more appealing to buyers in order to get
the highest possible price for their asset. Family business owners
are clearly more savvy than they used to be, in part because of
greater access to information, but also because so many private
equity firms have established themselves in the middle market
and are spreading the word about what they do and who they are. |
Expansion
Capital Partners has acquired an additional 20,000 common
shares of Biorem Inc., an Ontario,
Canada-based provider of air pollution control filters. The new shares
represent 2% of Biorem’s outstanding common stock, meaning that Expansion
now holds an 11.7% position overall. The new shares were sold via
a private agreement with an existing shareholder.
Bessemer Ventures has listed on its site some of
the
deals that it missed. Congratulations on their humanity.
Top
Interest Rates and Currencies
We expect the federal funds rate to continue to rise
to at least 5% within the next 6 months. US GDP
and consumer spending both rose in the three months to 30 September,
despite the hurricanes. The GDP rose by an annual
rate of 3.8% during the quarter, and consumer spending increased by
3.9%.
In the US there has been much talk of inflation,
however the general conclusion is that inflation is under control, but
deflationary pressures may instead rise in the first half of next year.
Prices are being pushed up, by interest rate rises, energy price rises
and buoyancy in the housing market. But the underlying demand
is not burgeoning and is under pressure. We expect stability in
inflation and interest rates, but recognise that volatility risk is
high. The spike in US house prices seems to be slowing but is
well off historical trends which suggests a slowdown in demand is imminent.
The weather and energy problems in the US may have curtailed short term
enthusiasm. Hoisington Investment Management Company illustrate
the tension with these two charts below. The first shows the spike
in real house prices. The second shows the reliance on imported
oil, which transaltes in to higher energy costs and lower demand for
domestic production.


And inflationary pressures are global. This chart
shows the massive spike that has been fuelled by war and weather change.
This makes planning more challenging.

Trade and FDI
In an effort to revive stalled World Trade Organization
talks, the EU and US have said they will cut controversial agricultural
subsidies and tariffs. The US has said its reductions are dependent
on similar action from the EU and Japan. The statements were made at
a WTO meeting in Zurich which is leading to meetings in Hong Kong in
December which aim to bring about a trade treaty by year-end. These
proposals could see the key agricultural subsidies cut by 60% before
2010, with trade tariffs slashed by up to 90%. Trade tariffs would eventually
be phased out completely, except on a limited number of "sensitive"
products. Agricultural subsidies within the EU are on their way
out. There is resistance, especially in areas like sugar, but they are
uncomeptitive. "The abolition of the CAP is the only proper objective.
There are no valid efficiency, security or fairness arguments for the
continued protection and subsidisation of the agricultural sector."
says Willem H. Buiter, Professor of European Political Economy, London
School of Economics. If agreement on subsidy reduction is made, the
Doha round of trade talks will be revived.
On the other hand, in related developments, the US
has said it may retaliate against Brazil if it imposes
sanctions in a cotton trade dispute. Brazil, which
is at the forefront of efforts by the G20 group of developing nations
to win more access to foreign market, had asked the World Trade Organization
(WTO) for permission to impose $1 billion in penalties because the US
has failed to meet a deadline for cutting its aid to US cotton farmers.
In particular US cotton subsidies distort prices and
harm competition by lowering export prices. The
US could remove trade preferences which are worth more than $2 billion
to Brazil. But even in the US Agriculture Secretary Mike Johanns has
called for an overhaul of its system of subsidies for farming, saying
that without such measures, the US would be unable to set out its own
terms for access to world market.
Top
Energy
US oil giant Exxon Mobil has posted a quarterly
profit of $ 9.9 billion, the largest in US corporate history,
on the back of record oil and gas prices. Profit was up 75%
and revenue rose 32% to more than $ 100 billion.
The French government has cancelled
plans to part-privatise nuclear power group Areva,
claiming strategic and safety concerns for its U-turn.
Climate Change and Environment
The weather is still volatile and seemingly topsy-turvy.
Wilma followed Katrina through Florida and floods have disrupted life
in Pakistan, on
top of the earthquake. These warnings seem to be coming thick and fast,
but we need to do much more to rejuvenate the world environment.
Many insurance and reinsurance firms have begun to
quantify the financial damage caused by the hurricane and the extent
of likely claims. Munich Re, the world’s largest re-insurer, has estimated
that the total insured loss could be $15 billion - $ 30 billion
and expects a significant hardening of prices and conditions in natural
catastrophe and marine reinsurance, with more people likely to realise
the importance of such insurance. Insurers began to study possible links
between climate change and catastrophic losses in the early 1990s; the
devastation and cost of Hurricane Katrina has now provided a new impulse
to insurers trying to raise public awareness and push the topic onto
the political agenda. Nevertheless, two reports, published
by Ceres
and Friends
of the Earth (FOE), both conclude that climate change is catching
insurance companies unawares. The Ceres report points out that “insured
and total property losses ($45 billion and $107 billion in 2004, respectively)
are rising faster than premiums, population, or economic growth both
globally and in the US”.
European regulators are serious about curbing greenhouse-gas
emissions, at least relative to the laissez-faire Americans,
and new models from teh auto industry illustrate the changes. A walk
around the Messe Frankfurt complex, home of the city's biennial international
motor show, reveals how far European car makers have to go. There is
doubt about how enormous cars, like Mercedes-Benz's eighth-generation
S-Class sedan and Audi's enormous Q7 luxury SUV, which seem a part of
some previous modus vivendi, fit into Europe's changing regulatory landscape.
For example, the European Union has targeted that by 2009, the European
new-car fleet will have to average something like 40 miles per U.S.
gallon (about 5.9 L/100 km). It's virtually climate martial law. All
other things being equal, European manufacturers - particularly global
giants such as the VW Group and DaimlerChrysler - would rely on their
historic advantages in diesel technology to meet these goals (diesel
engines get anywhere from 25 per cent to 40 per cent better fuel economy
than gasoline engines). But the EU has ruled out easy answers. Other
European requirements in 2010 will force huge cuts in diesel particulate
and nitrides of oxygen (NOx) emissions. Meeting those provisions may
all but eliminate the economy advantages of diesel powertrains. About
the same time, new standards for occupant and pedestrian safety will
add more weight to cars and proscribe more aerodynamically efficient
designs. This is herding European manufacturers toward the one propulsion
technology that they have most disdained: hybrids.
It's with no small sense of exasperation that the Europeans are conceding
on this technological point, where they have been outflanked by Japanese
manufacturers, particularly Toyota and Honda. Read
more here.
Asian Environment Outlook (AEO) 2005, estimates the
global market in 2005 for environmental goods and services to be about
$600 billion, and projects this market will expand to more than $800
billion by 2015. Out of this burgeoning market, Asia and the Pacific
accounts for $37 billion. With a growth rate of 8%-12% -- the fastest
in the world -- the regional market is expected to triple to $100 billion
by 2015. AEO 2005 argues that there is a critical missing ingredient
in the pursuit of a sustainable future for Asia and the Pacific -- that
of a fully engaged private sector. While governments determine the rules
under which businesses act, the firms themselves use natural resources,
make products, and generate pollution. A sustainable future for the
region - and the rest of the planet -- is not possible without greater
corporate engagement and environmental responsibility.
Climate change could lead to the extinction of many animals
including migratory birds, says a report
commissioned by the UK government. Melting ice, spreading deserts
and the impact of warm seas on the sex of turtles are among threats
identified. The report says that warming has already changed the migration
routes of some birds and other animals. The UK's Department of
Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) commissioned the research,
which was led by the British Trust for Ornithology.
Top
IT
Currently, the nearest thing to an internet ruling
body is a California-based group called the Internet Corporation for
Assigned Names and Numbers (ICANN). The private company
was set up by the US Department of Commerce to oversee the domain name
and addressing systems, such as country domain suffixes. It manages
how net browsers and e-mail programs direct traffic. ICANN was to gain
its independence from the Department of Commerce by September 2006.
But in July the US said it would "maintain its historic role in authorising
changes or modifications to the authoritative root zone file". America's
determination to remain the ultimate purveyor of the internet has angered
other countries which believe it is time to come up with a new way of
regulating the digital traffic of the 21st century. In
the face of opposition from countries such as China, Iran and Brazil,
and several African nations, the US is now isolated ahead of November's
UN summit. The row threatens to overshadow talks
on other issues such as bringing more people online and tackling spam
e-mail. The stakes are high, with the European
Commissioner responsible for the net, Viviane Reding, warning of a potential
web meltdown. "The US is absolutely isolated and
that is dangerous," she said during a briefing with journalists in London.
"Imagine the Brazilians or the Chinese doing their
own internet. That would be the end of the story. I
am very much afraid of a fragmented internet if there is no agreement."
For this reason and the increasing type of equipment that uses internet
addresses, a resolution is likely and will include the UN.
China said Sunday it is imposing new regulations
to control content on its news Web sites and will allow the posting
of only "healthy and civilized" news. The move is part of China's ongoing
efforts to police the country's
100-million Internet population. Only the United States, with 135 million
users, has more. As part of the wider effort to curb potential dissent,
the government has also closed thousands of cybercafes — the main entry
to the Web for many Chinese unable to afford a computer at home. Authorities
in Shanghai have installed surveillance cameras and begun requiring
visitors to Internet cafes to register with their official identity
cards. The government also recently threatened to shut down unregistered
Web sites and blogs, the online diaries in which users post their thoughts
for others to read. China also shut down three intellectual forums in
October.
It appeared last month that Toshiba's HD DVD format
would be adopted over Sony's BluRay because of the
commitment of Microsoft to HD DVD. However, this was premature. The
tide has shifted to BluRay because it holds more data, has a number
of film studios in its camp and now has teh backing of Dell. Some analysts
reckon Microsoft's move was a desperate attempt to preempt BluRay and
thereby harm one of the key players in the entertainment market where
Microsoft's strategy is leading it.
Novell released SuSE 10.0 in October. The desktop
Linux distribution has the power of the previous professional version
but is designed for first time users too. We upgraded/installed it with
no problem. It is quick, functional and nice to look at - a good buy.
A quick note on blogs, a fast emerging source of intelligence
and analysis. A blog (weblog) is a website of editorial postings that
is updated in real time by users. (The web is normally compared with
a library - each site is a book, but blogs are more like coffee shops
- each site is a table of chatter.) Often they are the daily journal
of an individual who may get a following because of her position or
expertise in an area. The blog search site www.technorati.com
is a useful site to browse as you explore this arena - link there now
and you will see top blog searches at this moment.
Top
Holonics and LOHAS
Holonics * Health * Environment * Education * Living
Holonics
We taken ths bold step of using the professional, but commonly unfamiliar,
term "holonics" to describe our approach, replacing terms
based on "integral" technology. The reasons for this are that
holonics is more accurate and we have observed a number of references
to holonic methods, including in the fields of management and mechanical
design,
suggesting it is entering mainstream use. For those unfamiliar, we have
an introduction
here. Simply, a holonic system is built of modules which are whole
in themselves and also fit together with others (similar and different)
to form a bigger, different system. For example cells (which are individually
independent and perform functions within themsleves) are incorporated
together to form a body of interdependent cells (which body itself is
independent and functions independently) and these people are incorporated
to form larger systems like a society or business. This section will
tend to focus on holonics as it is reflected in personal or business
management.
The Harvard Business Review published in October a study of seven organization
types. The authors - Gary Neilson, Bruce Pasternack, and Karen Van Nuys
- discover that the most common type is of the far-from-healthy passive-aggressive
variety, in which lines of authority are unclear, merit is not rewarded,
and people have learned to smile, nod, and do just enough to get by.
Passive-aggressive organizations are friendly places to work: People
are congenial, conflict is rare, and consensus is easy to reach. But,
at the end of the day, even the best proposals fail to gain traction,
and a company can go nowhere so imperturbably that it's easy to pretend
everything is fine. Such companies are not necessarily saddled with
mulishly passive-aggressive employees. Rather, they are filled with
mostly well-intentioned people who are the victims of flawed processes
and policies. (See Psychology of Tyranny in Risk section.) Commonly,
a growing company's halfhearted or poorly thought-out attempts to decentralize
give rise to multiple layers of managers, whose authority for making
decisions becomes increasingly unclear. Some managers, as a result,
hang back, while others won't own up to the calls they've made, inviting
colleagues to second-guess or overturn the decisions. In such organizations,
information does not circulate freely, and that makes it difficult for
workers to understand the impact of their actions on company performance
and for managers to appraise employees' value to the organization correctly.
A failure to match incentives to performance accurately stifles initiative,
and people do just enough to get by. Breaking free from this pattern
is hard; a long history of seeing corporate initiatives ignored and
then fade away tends to make people cynical. Often it's best to bring
in an outsider to signal that this time things will be different. He
or she will need to address every obstacle all at once: clarify decision
rights; see to it that decisions stick; and reward people for sharing
information and adding value, not for successfully negotiating corporate
politics. If those steps are not taken, it's only a matter of time before
the diseased elements of a passive-aggressive organization overwhelm
the remaining healthy ones and drive the company into financial distress.
Here are the category types and the results of how workers identify
their own companies:
Healthy Organizations:
| 17% |
Resilient - Highly adaptable to external
market shifts, yet focused on and aligned behind a coherent
business strategy. |
| 10% |
Just-in-Time - Inconsistently prepared
for change but can rise to an unanticipated challenge without
losing sight of the big picture. |
| 4% |
Military Precision - Dominated by a
small, involved senior team; succeeds through superior execution
and the efficiency of its operation. |
Unhealthy Organizations
| 27% |
Passive-Aggressive - Congenial and seemingly
conflict free, achieves consensus easily, but struggles to implement
agreed-upon plans. |
| 10% |
Too large and complex to be effectively controlled
by a small team, but has yet to democratize decision-making
authority. |
| 9% |
Overmanaged - Its multiple layers of
management create analysis paralysis and also politicize decision-making. |
| 8% |
Fits-and-Starts - Contains scores of
smart, motivated, and talented people who rarely pull in the
same direction at the same time. |
| 15% |
Inconclusive organization type |
Health
Eat your brussels sprouts! Scientists
assert that eating vegetables from the cabbage
family can reduce the risk of lung cancer for people
with a certain genetic make-up. Such cruciferous vegetables had already
been linked to reduced rates of lung cancer, but it had not been clear
why. The study found eating the vegetables at least once a week cut
cancer risk for people with inactive versions of two genes, carried
by 70% of people. The Lancet study was by International
Agency for Cancer Research scientists. The two genes which were studied
are the GSTM1 and GSTT1, which normally protect the body against certain
toxins. Vegetables such as cabbage, broccoli and sprouts are rich in
chemicals called isothiocyanates, which strongly protect against lung
cancer. Normally, isothiocyanates are eliminated from the body by "clean-up"
enzymes produced by the genes GSTM1 and GSTT1. But eating the vegetables
at least once a week was found to have a 33% protective effect against
lung cancer in people who just had an inactive form of the GSTM1 gene.
Around 50% of people have this form of this gene. In those with an inactive
form of the GSTT1 gene, there was a 37% protective effect. Around
20% have this form. But individuals who had inactive versions of both
genes - which applies to 10% of the population - were 72% protected.
More general studies presented to the annual meeting of the American
Association for Cancer Research add to the evidence that changing
your diet may be among the most effective ways of prolonging
your life. Up to a third of cancers are thought to be associated
with diet. Experts say eating more fruit and vegetables is the second
most effective way to reduce the risk of cancer, after not smoking.
Vegetables, fruit, nuts, oily fish and whole grains stand out in the
nutritional crowd for their cancer preventing qualities. Brassicas contain
glucosinolates, which are broken down by chewing or cutting into sulphoraphane
which has been shown to have anti-cancer properties. In another study,
researchers found that using garlic to flavour meat could help counteract
the carcinogenic substances produced in cooking protein.
National
Geographic covered longevity in their latest issue. Included
in their review were several case studies of very old people, including
a number over 100 years old. The two main recommendations for
long life are lifestyle choices: be vegetarian and
be active. Longue vie!
The Ecologist September issue has a comprehensive review of aspartame,
a chemical sweetener. The findings are worrying and if you use it we
recommend reconsidering.
New research has revealed that men who smoke are damaging
their fertility as well as their general health. Two-thirds
of male smokers were found to have sperm that did not have the normal
ability to fertilise an egg. And heavier smokers were more likely to
fail the test. Those who failed the test were, on average, 75pc less
fertile than non-smokers. The findings are revealed in a study funded
by the American cigarette giant Philip Morris - which manufactures a
number of leading brands, including Marlboro which had its 50th birthday
in October. Researchers from the University of Buffalo studied 18 men
who had smoked at least four cigarettes a day for more than two years
and then compared their sperm function with that of non-smokers.
McDonalds will put nutritional information
on food packaging from next February, including details of fat and salt.
They are also giving Ronald a sporty makeover. And Fair Trade Certified
organic coffee will now be served in 658 McDonald's restaurants in New
England and Albany, New York. The coffee brand is Newman's
Own Organics, roasted by Green Mountain Coffee Roasters. These initiatives
demonstrate responsible business practices and bode well for the stability
and growth of that business.
The corporate takeover of the global food chain is now the world’s
biggest public health hazard, experts warned at a major conference
in London last month. The conference — If Food Could Talk: Hidden
Stories from the Food Chain — was hosted by the Mayor of London and
was staged to mark World Food Day (16 October). It brought together
leading figures from the world of food policy, fair trade, health
and sustainable development. With just four companies responsible
for 13% of total food sales in the world — and global food brands
was taking a huge toll on public health, particularly in developing
countries.
Environment
Coca-Cola is increasingly in the sights of Corporate
Accountability International. Coke's business policy and practice have
a powerful affect on water supplies in communities.
Now the company is building a bottled water business CAI is concerned
about their misleading marketing that undermines confidence in tap water.
Especially unethical in countries where there are limited water resources
and a population that ought to spend on education and other more pressing
needs. Whether or not Coke is improving its practice and policy, the
company will be affected by the deterioration of global water systems
and supplies. They may engage in greenwash today but will have to face
the reality of water scarcity within five years because of the natural
priorities of water supply and safety. If you want to help, don't buy/drink
coke/soft drinks or bottled water.
Sweden has launched a commuter train
running on biogas. Its top speed is 130 kmh and
emits lower pollution than fossil fuels.
Education
A study by the World Resources Institute and the Aspen Institute,
"Beyond Grey Pinstripes," found that 54% of the 91 business schools
surveyed required a course in ethics, corporate social responsibility,
sustainability, or business and society. This is up from just 34%
in 2001. The report also noted new, innovative courses on such topics
as private-sector approaches for solving problems in low-income markets.
The courses are part of a wider effort in business education to prepare
tomorrow's leaders for the new realities of a global economy.
The Third World Environemntal Eductaion
Congress took place in October. Papers are listed online.
Living
In Brazil, a referendum backed
by the Catholic church, Government and UN to ban the sale of guns
was defeated by a 64% majority, although restricting
availability of firearms has been proven to reduce crime. In Diadema
and Sao Paolo making illegal possession a felony or banning possession
has reduced the number of deaths caused by angry neighbours shooting
each other. It is now up to local governments to follow the lead of
Diadema and ban guns to reduce crime and death. Guns
kill one person in Brazil every 15 minutes, giving it the world's
highest death toll from firearms. The immediate consequence of the
referendum is that gun shops will remain
In the US, laws were passed resticting
the prosecution of gun makers for liability when
their guns are used in shootings. This pleases gun makers but does
not help to reduce violent crime or accidental deaths.
We now have an excuse for my lazy teen days, and know what to expect
from our children. Scientists have found that a person's "sleep pressure"
rate - the biological trigger that causes sleepiness - slows down
in adolescence, explaining the reluctance of teenagers to
sleep until later at night.The study, published in the journal
'Sleep', suggests that as children mature, their internal, chemically-driven
pressure to sleep builds up more slowly. Mary Carskadon, professor
of psychiatry and human behaviour at Brown Medical School in Providence,
Rhode Island, said: "The results show that the adage 'Early to bed,
early to rise' presents a real challenge for adolescents."
Rosa Parks, the black woman whose 1955 protest action
in Alabama marked the start of the modern US civil rights movement,
has died at the age of 92. Mrs Parks' refusal to give up her seat
to a white man on a bus prompted a mass black boycott of buses, organised
by Baptist minister Martin Luther King Jr., whose protest movement
brought about the 1964 Civil Rights Act, which outlawed racial discrimination
in the US. On 1 December 1955, she was sitting on a bus in Montgomery
when a white man demanded her seat. Mrs Parks refused, defying the
rules which required blacks to give up their seats to whites. She
was arrested and fined $14. Her arrest triggered a 381-day boycott
of the bus system organised by the then little-known Rev Luther King
Jr. The protest led to the desegregation of the transport system.
Mrs Parks and her husband, Raymond, moved to Detroit in 1957, after
she lost her job and received numerous death threats in Alabama.
Top
Activities, Books and Gatherings
While making some minor website changes, I was delighted to find out
that if you do a Yahoo search for "holonics" Astraea comes
up on the second page, and if you do a search for "integral investing"
GRI Equity is top of the list!
We put our first music video "Prince
of Peace" by Galliano online. And hope more will follow.
The film version of Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy
is a brilliant story with many enlighted philosophies woven in. Worth
viewing.
See the website http://www.northsoutheastwest.org/
for a dynamic look at climate change.
Pet lovers may enjoy http://www.canineportraits.org
which is contributing funds to train a teacher in the US. Teach for
America is the national organization of recent college graduates who
commit to teach in public schools serving low-income rural and urban
communities.
The International
Spirit At Work highlights companies that have implemented explicit
spiritual practices, policies or programs inside their organizations.
For the past four years, ISAW has recognized 23 distinguished companies
ranging from The Body Shop, to Times of India, and to the Australia
and New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. The 2005 ceremony honours the nine
new recipients of the award. The event showcases a number of inventive
frameworks that the honorees used in implementing their spiritual value
system into a results-oriented environment of business.
On November 7th, 9-10 PM Eastern there will be
a teleconference with Dee Hock, founder of VISA and author of One
from Many: VISA and the Rise of Chaordic Organizations. His work
is highly recommended. See details
of the conference here, or see the latest book
One from Many: VISA and the Rise of Chaordic Organizations
here.
Top
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offer, or an invitation or solicitation to make an offer to buy or sell
any securities. This report has not been made with regard to the specific
investment objectives, financial situation or the particular needs of
any specific persons who may receive this report. It does not purport
to be a complete description of the securities, markets or developments
or any other material referred to herein. The information on which this
report is based, has been obtained from publicly available sources and
private sources which may have vested interests in the material referred
to herein. Although GRI Equity and the distributors have no specific
reasons for believing such information to be false, neither GRI Equity
nor the distributors have independently verified such information and
no representation or warranty is given that it is up-to-date, accurate
and complete. GRI Equity, associates of GRI Equity, the distributors,
and/or their affiliates and/or their directors, officers and employees
may from time to time have a position in the securities mentioned in
this report and may buy or sell securities described or recommended
in this report. GRI Equity, associates of GRI Equity, the distributors,
and/or their affiliates may provide investment banking services, or
other services, for any company and/or affiliates or subsidiaries of
such company whose securities are described or recommended in this report.
Neither GRI Equity nor the distributors nor any of their affiliates
and/or directors, officers and employees shall in any way be responsible
or liable for any losses or damages whatsoever which any person may
suffer or incur as a result of acting or otherwise relying upon anything
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